Turning Tides in Burma (Myanmar): Ethnic Armed Groups Rise as Military Regime Falters Despite China and Russia’s Backing

In a historic shift with broad geopolitical implications, Burma’s (Myanmar’s) ethnic armed resistance forces are emerging as formidable power players, challenging the once-dominant military junta despite its backing from global giants China and Russia. What was once a regime fortified by decades of brutal control and heavily armed with foreign-supplied jets, surveillance systems, and weaponry is now visibly crumbling under sustained resistance from decentralized ethnic coalitions who are fighting not only for their autonomy but for survival.

From Unassailable to Unraveling

The Burmese military (Tatmadaw) long held the upper hand through sheer firepower, aerial dominance, and strategic relationships with Beijing and Moscow. But since the 2021 coup, the junta has faced unprecedented nationwide resistance—led not only by urban pro-democracy movements but more significantly by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) such as the Karen (Kawthoolei Army and Karen National Liberation Army), Karenni Army, Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Arakan Army (AA), and the Brotherhood Alliance.

These groups have not only resisted but now control and govern large swaths of territory. Strategic military bases once considered unbreakable have fallen in northern Shan State, Karenni (Kayah) State, Karen State and Rakhine, showing that the Tatmadaw’s conventional strength is no match for coordinated, terrain-savvy guerrilla tactics.

A Failing Military, A Recalibrating China

China, which once saw the military as a partner for regional stability, is now reevaluating its position. With the military consistently losing ground, China is beginning to recognize that its economic and strategic interests may be better protected by negotiating with ethnic forces.

China’s interests in Burma/Myanmar lie in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), especially the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, and access to rare earth elements, jade, gold, and other critical minerals—many of which are located in ethnic-controlled areas.

A 2023 Global Witness report highlights that China is the world’s largest consumer of rare earths, making stability in Myanmar’s border regions essential to Chinese supply chains. With the military unable to provide that stability, China may pivot toward alliances with ethnic groups capable of governing and securing those regions.

Russia’s Role and Waning Influence

Russia, while a key arms supplier, lacks the regional stakes of China. Its ability to support the junta is limited by its own war in Ukraine and global sanctions. Even with Russian-supplied aircraft and helicopters, the junta has failed to maintain control on the ground.

Airstrikes have not broken resistance; they’ve fueled it. Human rights groups have reported that military bombings have only strengthened ethnic solidarity, displacing civilians but failing to suppress opposition.

The Sanctions Illusion and Western Blind Spot

Despite years of Western sanctions aimed at isolating the Burmese military, the junta has proven remarkably resilient—economically battered, but not broken. Sanctions have had limited practical impact in ending the regime’s grip on power, particularly as China, Russia, and regional black markets continue to prop it up.

In stark contrast, the ethnic armed groups—who have done the most to weaken the junta on the ground—have received little to no support from Western nations. While they fight on the frontlines for democracy, justice, and autonomy, they remain largely excluded from international recognition and material aid.

This reality presents a critical strategic oversight. If the United States and its allies wish to protect democratic interests and stability in Southeast Asia, they must reconsider their current approach. Ignoring the rising influence and legitimacy of these ethnic forces risks allowing China to recalibrate first, aligning with these groups and thereby expanding its economic and geopolitical dominance in the region.

Now is the perfect opportunity for the U.S. to stand with the freedom-loving ethnic armed resistance—not only out of moral obligation, but as a calculated move to counterbalance China’s influence and foster long-term partnerships based on shared values and mutual interest in stability.

The Rise of a New Power Structure

Ethnic armed groups are not just military forces—they are functioning governments. They operate schools, clinics, local courts, and tax systems. The Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027, launched in late 2023, seized over 150 military bases and trade posts, a stunning blow to the junta’s economic lifelines.

By early 2025, ethnic coalitions and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) have effectively replaced central authority in many regions, suggesting a new federal future rooted in self-governance.

A Tectonic Shift in Alliances?

Reports from The Irrawaddy and Radio Free Asia indicate that China has quietly initiated talks with ethnic leaders in Kunming, marking a potential realignment of foreign support. If confirmed, this would represent a historic break from China’s traditional support for the Burmese military.

Ethnic leaders are aware of the geopolitical game, but also see this as an opportunity to gain legitimacy and negotiate for autonomy and resource control.

Conclusion: A Future Forged in Resistance

Burma’s future is no longer dictated by the generals in Naypyidaw or by foreign powers alone. The center of gravity has shifted to the ethnic borderlands, where resilience, unity, and grassroots governance are redefining the nation’s power structure.

If the United States wants to uphold its influence and principles in Southeast Asia, now is the time to engage directly with the ethnic armed groups who are carrying the real burden of freedom and reform. This moment presents a strategic opening—to build alliances, support democratic self-rule, and prevent China from monopolizing the future of a region poised for transformation.

References:

• Global Witness (2023). Myanmar’s deadly jade trade and China's stake in rare earths.

• Radio Free Asia (2024). China hosts ethnic leaders amid Myanmar military setbacks.

• The Irrawaddy (2024). Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027: A game-changer in the resistance.

• Human Rights Watch (2024). Myanmar: Military airstrikes worsen humanitarian crisis.

• UN OCHA (2025). Myanmar conflict update.