The Future of Political Stability in Thailand: Assessing the Risk of a Military Coup in 2025

Thailand has a long history of military coups, with 12 successful coups since the establishment of its constitutional monarchy in 1932. While the probability of a military coup in 2025 appears low, experts caution that ongoing political and economic challenges, as well as Thailand’s alignment with Burma’s military regime, could create conditions for future instability.

Key Factors Influencing Coup Likelihood

1. Public Sentiment

A December 2024 survey from the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) found that:

• Only 3.05% of respondents expect a coup in 2025.

• 39.92% anticipate increased political turmoil, which could contribute to instability.

• 51.22% believe that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will remain in power throughout 2025 (Nation Thailand, 2024).

2. Military and Monarchy Influence

Although Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has consolidated power, Thailand’s military and monarchy remain dominant forces in governance. Historically, these institutions have intervened when civilian leaders threaten their influence or fail to maintain stability (East Asia Forum, 2025).

3. Thailand’s Increasing Alignment with Burma’s Military Regime

Since the 2021 military coup in Burma (Myanmar), Thailand’s Prime Minister and military leadership have strengthened ties with Burma’s junta, known as the State Administration Council (SAC). This alignment has led to:

• Increased cooperation between the Thai and Burmese military, despite international sanctions against Burma's junta.

• Support for Burma’s military leadership, including economic and diplomatic backing that indirectly facilitates human rights violations.

• Crackdowns on Burmese pro-democracy activists in Thailand, as Thai authorities have arrested or deported those fleeing persecution.

• Impact on Ethnic Groups: The continued military cooperation between Thailand and Burma has furthered human rights violations against ethnic groups, including the Karen, Karenni, Shan, Mon, Chin, Arakan, and Kachin people, many of whom have sought refuge along the Thai-Burma border.

4. Refugee Camps in Thailand and the Shift Away from Supporting Ethnic Minorities

For decades, Thailand provided a level of protection for ethnic refugees fleeing Burma’s brutal military campaigns. However, this policy has shifted dramatically since the passing of King Bhumibol Adulyadej in 2016. Under King Bhumibol, Thailand maintained a cautious but protective stance toward ethnic refugees, balancing diplomatic ties with Burma while offering humanitarian aid to those fleeing violence.

After his son, King Maha Vajiralongkorn, ascended the throne, Thailand’s approach toward ethnic refugees changed significantly. The new king and the government have taken a less protective stance, aligning more closely with Burma’s military regime and reducing support for displaced ethnic groups. As a result:

• Ethnic refugees in Thailand face increased risks, including arrests, deportations, and restricted access to humanitarian aid.

• Pressure on refugee camps has intensified, with reduced funding and stricter policies limiting movement and assistance.

• Karen, Karenni, Shan, and other ethnic groups who once found relative safety in Thailand now face uncertainty, as the Thai government distances itself from supporting them.

Human rights organizations have raised concerns that Thailand is abandoning its long-standing humanitarian role in favor of military and economic ties with Burma’s junta. This shift further endangers the amazing ethnic people who have long struggled for survival amidst Burma’s ongoing oppression (Human Rights Watch, 2024).

5. Dissolution of the Move Forward Party (MFP)

In August 2024, the Move Forward Party (MFP)—which won the most votes in the 2023 election—was dissolved for proposing changes to Thailand’s strict royal defamation laws. This decision may fuel protests and tensions, increasing the risk of conflict between reformist factions and the conservative establishment (Commons Library UK, 2024).

6. Economic Conditions

Economic stability is a key factor in preventing political crises. The World Bank projects Thailand’s GDP growth at 2.9% in 2025, driven by domestic demand and fiscal stimulus. However, high public debt and global economic uncertainties could impact this growth. Economic downturns have historically been a catalyst for military intervention (World Bank, 2025).

7. Lessons from Past Coups

Thailand’s most recent military coups in 2006 and 2014 were triggered by:

• Political deadlock

• Mass protests

• Economic downturns

If political infighting escalates or the government struggles to control unrest, the military may justify intervention as a means to restore order (Bangkok Post, 2024).

The article "History of Thailand: Thai History As Seen through Every Coup in Thailand" provides a comprehensive overview of Thailand's political landscape, highlighting the numerous military coups that have occurred since the country transitioned from an absolute to a constitutional monarchy in 1932. According to the article, there have been 12 successful military coups during this period, reflecting the nation's tumultuous political history.Conclusion

While no immediate coup is expected in 2025, Thailand’s history suggests that political instability, economic stress, or weak governance could still lead to military intervention in the future. The delicate balance between civilian rule and military influence remains fragile, making Thailand a country to closely watch in the coming years.

Furthermore, Thailand’s growing alignment with Burma’s military junta raises serious human rights concerns, particularly for ethnic minorities facing persecution. With Thailand moving away from defending and supporting ethnic refugees, the Karen, Karenni, Shan, Mon, Chin, Arakan, and Kachin people—many of whom reside in refugee camps inside Thailand—are increasingly at risk.

This dramatic shift, largely influenced by the change in Thailand’s monarchy and deepening military ties with Burma, highlights a disturbing trajectory that could further endanger human rights, regional stability, and democratic progress.

References

1. Nation Thailand. (2024). Public Sentiment on Political Stability. Retrieved from nationthailand.com

2. East Asia Forum. (2025). Thailand’s Ongoing Struggle for Democratic Stability. Retrieved from eastasiaforum.org

3. Commons Library UK. (2024). Political Challenges in Thailand. Retrieved from commonslibrary.parliament.uk

4. Human Rights Watch. (2024). Thailand’s Alignment with Burma and Its Human Rights Impact. Retrieved from hrw.org

5. Bangkok Post. (2024). Thailand’s Refugee Policies and the Changing Role of the Monarchy. Retrieved from bangkokpost.com

6. World Bank. (2025). Thailand Economic Monitor: Unleashing Growth. Retrieved from worldbank.org